Peramalan Beban Listrik Kabupaten Cilacap
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56799/jim.v3i2.2813Keywords:
Ann, Backpropagation, Electrical Load, Load ForecastingAbstract
This study examines electricity load, emphasizing the need for accurate prediction and optimal distribution. Utilizing artificial neural networks and the backpropagation algorithm, the research leverages data from BPS Kabupaten Cilacap and PT. PLN (Persero) UP3 Kabupaten Cilacap. Various configurations for hidden layer neurons, epochs, and learning rates are explored to determine the optimal network architecture for forecasting. The selected model, with specific criteria, demonstrates high accuracy during training (MSE: 0.00099999, MAPE: 5.44%, Regression: 0.98226) and testing (MSE: 0.0009493, MAPE: 3.99%, Regression: 0.90709) phases. The conclusion affirms the effectiveness of the Backpropagation ANN method in predicting electricity load in Kabupaten Cilacap for the period 2023-2030, meeting PLN's tolerance of ≤ 10% based on the MAPE criteria.
Downloads
References
Afinda, Y. E., & Budiono, G. (2020). Peramalan Jangka Panjang Beban Listrik Sektor Rumah Tangga di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode Trend Proyeksi dan Regresi Linier. El Sains : Jurnal Elektro, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.30996/elsains.v2i1.4012
Amalia, A. M. (2020). Modifikasi Jaringan Backpropagation Dengan Particle Swarm Optimization Untuk Peramalan Curah Hujan. In Repository.Unej.Ac.Id. Retrieved from https://repository.unej.ac.id/handle/123456789/102589
Darto, et all. (2005). Buku Referensi Statistika untuk Ekonomi dan Bisnis. 1–22.
Dewi, I. P. (2015). STATISTIKA. In A psicanalise dos contos de fadas. Tradução Arlene Caetano. Retrieved from https://batukota.bps.go.id/publication/download
Djohar, A., & Musarudin, M. (2017). Analisis Kebutuhan dan Penyediaan Energi Listrik di Kabupaten Konawe Kepulauan Tahun 2017-2036 dengan Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak Leap. Fortei 2017, 293–298.
Fadilah, M. N., Yusuf, A., & Huda, N. (2021). Prediksi Beban Listrik Di Kota Banjarbaru Menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Backpropagation. Jurnal Matematika Murni Dan Terapan Epsilon, 14(2), 81. https://doi.org/10.20527/epsilon.v14i2.2961
Fadlilah, N., Harjanto, I., & Novita, M. (2021). Prediksi Beban Listrik Jangka Panjang Di Wilayah Jawa Tengah Menggunakan Algoritma Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Backpropagation. Science and Engineering …, 6(Sens 5), 598–604.
Gustriansyah, R. (2017). Analisis Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dengan Brown Exponential Smoothing Pada Studi Kasus Memprediksi Kuantiti Penjualan Produk Farmasidi Apotek. Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi Dan Multimedia, 7–12.
Kristianto, A., Handoko, S., & Karnoto. (2018). Aplikasi Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Untuk Proyeksi Kebutuhan Energi Listrik Provinsi D.I.Yogyakarta Tahun 2016-2025.
M. H. M. R. Shyamali Dilhani, N. M. W., & Kumara, and K. J. C. (2021). Electricity Load Forecasting Using Optimized Artificial Neural Network. US Patent 6,601,053. Retrieved from https://patents.google.com/patent/US6601053B1/en
Moshinsky, M. (2019). Power System Engineering Planning, Design, and Operation of Power System and Equipment. In Nucl. Phys. (Vol. 13).
Rohman, F. (2022). Prediksi Beban Listrik Dengan Menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Metode Backpropagation. Jurnal Surya Energy, 5(2), 55–60. https://doi.org/10.32502/jse.v5i2.3092
Septiarani, C. I. (2022). Peramalan Harga Ethereum Menggunakan Metode PSO-Backpropagation Neural Network. Sains Dan Teknologi, (11150331000034), 1–147.
Siang, J. (2005). Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan dan Pemograman Menggunakan Matlab. Pemograman Backpropagation Dengan Matlab, pp. 247–275.
Yuliawanti, F. D. (2022). Optimasi jaringan syaraf tiruan menggunakan particle swarm optimization untuk prediksi kasus covid-19 di indonesia. Retrieved from http://digilib.uinsby.ac.id/id/eprint/53013
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Evan Dhia Aruna, Bagus Fatkhurrozi, Andriyatna Agung Kurniawan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.